Expected Intake of Specified Skilled Workers | Food Service Industry at 98%, Remaining Quota Across 19 Fields

Specified Skilled Worker (i) has a quota called “Expected Intake” for each field. This is not merely a forecast, but a figure that is operated as an acceptance cap.

According to the latest data updated by the Immigration Services Agency (hereinafter, ISA) on September 4, 2026, the fulfillment rate as of the end of June, Reiwa 8 (2026), is 52.9% for all 19 fields combined. However, the Food Service Industry has reached 98.1%, and new acceptance has already been suspended. This article will clarify the remaining quotas for each field, what actually happens when a quota is filled, and the actions that should be taken now, for foreign nationals themselves and for HR professionals at companies.

The suspension measures currently in effect in the Food Service Industry field are explained in detail in “Impact and Countermeasures for Suspension of Acceptance in Specified Skilled Worker ‘Food Service Industry’“. This article is intended to provide an overview across all 19 fields to see “what’s next”.

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1. Conclusion: Quotas are “Caps,” and Remaining Numbers Vary Greatly by Field

First, let’s summarize the conclusions.

• The Expected Intake for Specified Skilled Worker (i) is a total of 805,700 people across 19 fields (number until the end of March, Reiwa 11 (2029)).
• The number of residents as of the end of June, Reiwa 8 (2026), is 425,961 (preliminary figure), with a fulfillment rate of 52.9%.
• While the overall figure is about half, the reality is that there are significant differences between fields. The Food Service Industry is at 98.1%, and Food and Beverage Manufacturing is at 75.5%, while Railway remains at 2.2% and Wood Industry at 1.6%.
• The Expected Intake is explicitly stated in the national policy as “to be operated as an acceptance cap”.
• When the quota is reached, the issuance of Certificates of Eligibility will cease, and applications for change of Status of Residence from other Statuses of Residence will also, in principle, no longer be approved. This measure has actually been implemented in the Food Service Industry since April 13, 2026.

In other words, the recruitment of Specified Skilled Workers cannot be planned on the premise that it can be done “at any time.” Depending on the field, the quota may be exhausted first.

2. What is “Expected Intake”?

Under the Specified Skilled Worker System, the Expected Intake for the next five years is determined for each field. The current figures are based on the Field-Specific Operational Policy decided at the relevant ministerial meeting and Cabinet meeting on January 23, Reiwa 8 (2026), and represent the Expected Intake until the end of March, Reiwa 11 (2029).

This is a point that is often misunderstood, but this figure is not a prediction of “how many people will come.” The main points of the Field-Specific Operational Policy published by the ISA state the following:

The Expected Intake is to be operated as an acceptance cap.

Immigration Services Agency “Main Points of Field-Specific Operational Policy”

In other words, Expected Intake = Capacity. If it is foreseen that the capacity will be reached, acceptance will be suspended. The legal basis for this lies in the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act (hereinafter, Immigration Control Act), and if the number of residents is expected to exceed the Expected Intake, temporary suspension measures for the issuance of Certificates of Eligibility are to be taken based on Article 7-2, Paragraphs 3 and 4 of the Immigration Control Act.

2-1. Only “Specified Skilled Worker (i)” is Subject

The Expected Intake is set for Specified Skilled Worker (i). Specified Skilled Worker (ii) does not have a numerical quota. For the differences between (i) and (ii), please refer to “Differences between Specified Skilled Worker (i) and (ii)“.

2-2. There are 19 Fields

There are currently 19 Specified Industry Fields. In March Reiwa 6 (2024), Automobile Transport, Railway, Forestry, and Wood Industry were added, and in January Reiwa 8 (2026), Linen Supply, Logistics Warehouse, and Resource Recycling were added. Note that the industrial fields for the Employment for Skill Development (ESD; Japanese: Ikusei Shuro) Program, which begins in April 2027, are 17 fields, and Automobile Transport and Aviation are fields only for Specified Skilled Worker.

3. [List] Expected Intake, Number of Residents, and Fulfillment Rate for 19 Fields

All 19 fields have been listed from the “Expected Intake and Number of Residents for Specified Skilled Worker (i)” (as of the end of June, Reiwa 8 (2026) – preliminary figures) updated by the Immigration Services Agency on September 4, 2026. The “Remaining Quota” is the number obtained by subtracting the number of residents from the Expected Intake.

Field	Expected Intake	Number of Residents	Fulfillment Rate	Annual Increase	Remaining Quota
Food Service Industry	50,000	49,060	98.1%	13,289	940
Food and Beverage Manufacturing	133,500	100,769	75.5%	16,698	32,731
Construction	76,000	52,132	68.6%	8,533	23,868
Nursing Care	126,900	79,884	63.0%	24,968	47,016
Agriculture	73,300	44,050	60.1%	9,115	29,250
Aviation	4,900	2,803	57.2%	985	2,097
Automobile Maintenance	9,400	5,235	55.7%	1,488	4,165
Shipbuilding and Marine Industry	23,400	11,641	49.7%	996	11,759
Fishery	14,800	4,912	33.2%	1,070	9,888
Building Cleaning	32,200	10,171	31.6%	2,753	22,029
Industrial Product Manufacturing	199,500	62,033	31.1%	10,970	137,467
Accommodation	14,800	2,556	17.3%	1,291	12,244
Automobile Transport	22,100	558	2.5%	548	21,542
Railway	2,900	64	2.2%	43	2,836
Forestry	900	19	2.1%	19	881
Wood Industry	4,500	74	1.6%	72	4,426
Linen Supply	4,300	―	―	―	―
Logistics Warehouse	11,400	―	―	―	―
Resource Recycling	900	―	―	―	―
Total	805,700	425,961	52.9%	92,838	379,739

Here are three points to note when reading:

1. The “—” field was just added in January Reiwa 8 (2026) (linen supply, logistics warehouses, resource recycling). The number of residents has not been published, but this does not mean there is no quota.
2. The annual increase is the difference in the number of residents (preliminary figures) between the end of June Reiwa 7 (2025) and the end of June Reiwa 8 (2026). This represents a full year’s performance, not just a single month’s momentum.
3. These are preliminary figures and may be revised later.

4. What Happens When the Quota is Filled: What Actually Occurred in the Food Service Industry

This is not an abstract discussion. It has already happened in the Food Service Industry sector.

The Immigration Services Agency and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced a policy to implement a temporary suspension of issuance of Certificates of Eligibility for the Food Service Industry sector on April 13, 2026, as the number of foreign nationals residing in this sector was expected to exceed the Expected Intake (50,000 people). The details are as follows:

Type of Application	Treatment of Applications Accepted on or After April 13, 2026
Application for Certificate of Eligibility	Denial
Application for Change of Status of Residence to Specified Skilled Worker (i) (Food Service Industry)	Generally Denied
Application for Change of Status of Residence to Designated Activities (Preparation for Transition to Specified Skilled Worker (i))	Denial (with some exceptions)
Application for Extension of Period of Stay	Reviewed as usual

4-1. Applications Reviewed as Exceptions

Not everything will be halted. The following applications are expected to be permitted sequentially within the scope of the Expected Intake:

• Applications from individuals residing as Specified Skilled Worker (i) in the Food Service Industry sector (applications for job changes within the Food Service Industry sector) will be reviewed as usual.
• Individuals who have completed Technical Intern Training (medical/welfare facility meal preparation work) and are transitioning to Specified Skilled Worker (i) (Food Service Industry sector).
• Individuals who have already received permission for Designated Activities (preparation for transition to Specified Skilled Worker (i)) related to the Food Service Industry sector and are transitioning to Specified Skilled Worker (i) (Food Service Industry sector).

In other words, the continuation of residence and job changes for those already working in the food service industry are protected. What has been halted is the part that “opens new doors to the outside.”

4-2. Waiting Times Will Be Measured in “Years,” Not “Months”

According to the processing status published by the Immigration Services Agency on August 10, 2026, the applications for Certificate of Eligibility in the Food Service Industry sector that are currently being processed are those with reception dates up to January 5, Reiwa 8 (2026). Similarly, for applications for Change of Status of Residence that do not fall under the above exceptions (changes from other Status of Residence), applications with reception dates up to April 12, Reiwa 8 (2026) are being processed.

Furthermore, if the Period of Stay is likely to expire before an applicant’s turn comes, it is stated that individuals may be advised to change their Status of Residence to Designated Activities (preparation for Specified Skilled Worker (i)) or extend their Period of Stay under the same Status of Residence (extension is limited to once) to prevent illegal overstay. For average processing times for all Status of Residence, please also refer to “Immigration application processing time | Latest Average Days and Important Notes for 2026.”

5. Which Sectors Should Be Monitored Next (Calculation)

From here on are simple calculations by our office. These are not projections published by the government.

Calculating the number of years until the quota is exhausted if the current pace continues, using “Remaining Quota ÷ Annual Increase,” yields the following:

Sector	Remaining Quota	Annual Increase	Simple Calculation Estimate
Food Service Industry	940	13,289	Already under suspension
Nursing Care	47,016	24,968	Approx. 1.9 years
Food and Beverage Manufacturing	32,731	16,698	Approx. 2.0 years
Aviation	2,097	985	Approx. 2.1 years
Construction	23,868	8,533	Approx. 2.8 years
Automobile Maintenance	4,165	1,488	Approx. 2.8 years
Agriculture	29,250	9,115	Approx. 3.2 years
(Total of 19 Sectors)	379,739	92,838	Approx. 4.1 years

Let me clearly state the limitations of this calculation.

• The pace of increase is not constant. It fluctuates significantly depending on economic conditions, exchange rates, the situation in sending countries, and the popularity of the field.
• The Expected Intake is reviewed every five years. The figures may be revised before the end of March, Reiwa 11 (2029).
• Therefore, please read these years not as future predictions, but as a ‘rough guide to remaining capacity’ indicated by current figures.

With that said, Nursing Care, Food and Beverage Manufacturing, and Aviation are at a level where, if the current pace continues, discussions about caps could become a reality within a few years. Nursing Care, in particular, has the highest annual increase of 24,968 people across all fields, making it the fastest field to consume its remaining quota.

6. An Often Overlooked Fact: The Quota Has ‘Decreased’ from the Previous Setting

There is another lesser-known fact. The Expected Intake has decreased from the previous setting.

The Expected Intake for Specified Skilled Worker set in March Reiwa 6 (2024) was a total of 820,000 people. With the revision in January Reiwa 8 (2026), this has become 805,700 people. National documents also explicitly state, “Specified Skilled Worker has decreased from the conventional Expected Intake.”

Looking at each field, out of the 16 fields for which figures were available previously, 14 fields saw a reduction in their quotas, with only two fields increasing: Industrial Product Manufacturing (173,300 people → 199,500 people) and Aviation (4,400 people → 4,900 people). The main fields with decreases are as follows:

• Shipbuilding and Marine Industry: 36,000 people → 23,400 people (decrease of 12,600 people)
• Accommodation: 23,000 people → 14,800 people (decrease of 8,200 people)
• Nursing Care: 135,000 people → 126,900 people (decrease of 8,100 people)
• Food and Beverage Manufacturing: 139,000 people → 133,500 people (decrease of 5,500 people)
• Food Service Industry: 53,000 people → 50,000 people (decrease of 3,000 people)

National documents explain this revision by stating that it was “carefully reviewed, including revisions to promote further productivity improvements and efforts to secure domestic human resources.” It is important to note when formulating acceptance plans that this is not a system where quotas automatically expand.

7. Impact on Foreign Nationals Themselves and What to Confirm Now

What is important for foreign nationals themselves is that the actions they should take vary depending on ‘where their field currently stands.’

7-1. For Those Already Residing in That Field as Specified Skilled Worker (i)

• Applications for Extension of Period of Stay will be processed as usual. This also applies to the Food Service Industry, where suspension measures have been taken.
• Applications for change of employment within the same field will also be processed as usual.
• However, changes across fields (e.g., from Food Service Industry to another field, or from another field to Food Service Industry) will be affected by the situation of the destination field.

7-2. For Those Aiming to Become Specified Skilled Worker (i) in the Future

• Please check the fulfillment rate of your target field in the table above.
• In fields with a high fulfillment rate, the earlier the application acceptance date, the more advantageous it will be. This is because, in principle, processing is done in order of acceptance date if suspension measures are taken.
• Those considering transitioning from Student or Technical Intern Training should apply with ample time before their Period of Stay expires. In the case of Technical Intern Trainees, they cannot work after the completion of their training plan, so the Immigration Services Agency requests applications for Change of Status of Residence at least two months before the scheduled start date of employment.
• If your Period of Stay is approaching its expiration and the review has not been completed, please consult us early to avoid exceeding your Period of Stay by self-judgment. You may be advised to change to Designated Activities (preparation for Specified Skilled Worker (i)).

8. Impact on HR Professionals in Businesses and Actions to Take Now

For practical operations on the business side, we recommend the following five points:

1. Confirm the fulfillment rate of your company’s field. For fields exceeding 60% (Food Service Industry, Food and Beverage Manufacturing, Construction, Nursing Care, Agriculture), incorporate the existence of quotas as a premise for your recruitment plan.
2. Plan recruitment by ‘counting back from the application acceptance date’ rather than ‘counting back from the job offer.’ In fields where suspension measures have been taken, processing will be in order of acceptance date. Advancing the start of recruitment by just one quarter can significantly change the order.
3. Correctly understand that Extension of Period of Stay for existing employees will not stop. Suspension measures apply to new entries and do not affect the renewal of those currently employed. It is also the role of HR not to spread excessive anxiety.
4. Be aware that changes of employment within the same field are possible. Even in fields under suspension measures, applications for change of employment from the same field will be processed as usual. The option of mid-career hiring does not completely disappear.
5. Consider switching to the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program. The Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program, starting in April 2027, has an expected intake of 426,200 people, separate from the Specified Skilled Worker System. For details, please refer to “Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program 2027 | Transition from Technical Intern Training“.

Furthermore, regarding the support system for Specified Skilled Worker (i) foreign nationals, there will be a revision effective April 1, Reiwa 9 (2027), which will tighten the requirements for Registered Support Organizations and self-support. Please also check “Revision of Support System Requirements for Specified Skilled Worker (i) Foreign Nationals“.

9. What Happens to the Quota When the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program Begins?

When the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program begins in April 2027, the acceptance quota will become a two-tiered system.

System	Expected Intake	Number of Fields	Period
Specified Skilled Worker (i)	805,700 people	19 fields	Until the end of March, Reiwa 11 (2029)
Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program	426,200 people	17 fields	Starts April, Reiwa 9 (2027) – Until the end of March, Reiwa 11 (2029)
Total	1,231,900 people	―	―

Unlike Technical Intern Training, a distinctive feature of the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program is that an expected intake, which was not set for Technical Intern Training, has now been established. In other words, the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program also has a quota.

What should be noted in practice is that since the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program is a system aimed at “nurturing individuals for Specified Skilled Worker (i)”, those who complete the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program will fall within the Specified Skilled Worker (i) quota when they transition to Specified Skilled Worker (i). In fields where the Specified Skilled Worker (i) quota is already filled, such as the Food Service Industry, this issue may arise at the time of transition. The handling of applications filed before the effective date of the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program is explained in “Pre-filing for Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program“.

10. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1. If the fulfillment rate reaches the cap, will no one be able to work under the Specified Skilled Worker Status of Residence in that field?

A. No. The suspension measures primarily apply to new Applications for Certificate of Eligibility and Applications for Change of Status of Residence from other Statuses of Residence. In the case of the Food Service Industry, Applications for Extension of Period of Stay are processed as usual, and applications for job changes within the same field are also processed as usual.

Q2. When will the suspension measures be lifted?

A. The timing for lifting the suspension has not been indicated. While the suspension measures are positioned as a measure until the number of residents falls within the expected intake, no specific announcement regarding the lifting period for the Food Service Industry has been confirmed.

Q3. Is it possible for the expected intake to increase?

A. The expected intake is to be indicated every five years, so there are opportunities for review. However, in the revision of January Reiwa 8 (2026), the total decreased from 820,000 to 805,700 people. We believe it is advisable to avoid making plans based on the assumption of an increase.

Q4. Can the number of residents exceed the expected intake?

A. Under the system, suspension measures are taken “when it is anticipated that the number will be exceeded,” meaning it is designed to stop before exceeding, rather than after. As of the end of June Reiwa 8 (2026), the Food Service Industry had 49,060 residents, remaining within the 50,000-person quota.

Q5. Where can I check the latest figures for my field?

A. They are published on the Immigration Services Agency’s Specified Skilled Worker System page, under “Expected Intake and Number of Residents for Each Specified Skilled Worker (i) Field, etc.” The figures in this article are based on the September 4, 2026 updated version (as of the end of June Reiwa 8 (2026), preliminary figures).

Q6. Is there also a quota for Specified Skilled Worker (ii)?

A. The expected intake is set for Specified Skilled Worker (i). No numerical quota has been established for Specified Skilled Worker (ii).

Q7. Should I rush my application in a field where the quota is likely to be filled?

A. Since applications are generally processed in order of receipt when suspension measures are taken, an earlier receipt date is practically advantageous. However, even if you rush an application without complete documentation, it will ultimately take time due to requests for additional materials. The quality of preparation and the promptness of the receipt date must be balanced.

11. Summary: Develop a Recruitment Plan After Reviewing the Fields

Finally, let’s summarize the key points.

• The expected intake for Specified Skilled Worker (i) is a total of 805,700 people across 19 fields. This is operated as a cap, not a forecast.
• As of the end of June Reiwa 8 (2026), the overall fulfillment rate is 52.9%. However, the Food Service Industry is at 98.1%, and suspension measures have been in place since April 13, 2026.
• In fields where the quota is filled, Certificates of Eligibility will not be issued, and changes from other Statuses of Residence will generally be denied. On the other hand, Applications for Extension of Period of Stay and job changes within the same field will not be stopped.
• The quota decreased from the previous setting (820,000 to 805,700 people, a decrease in 14 out of 16 fields).
• In fields with high fulfillment rates, the speed of application submission becomes a practical differentiator.

Hiring Specified Skilled Workers is not solely determined by meeting the requirements. It involves a condition beyond a company’s control: the remaining quota for the field. That is why it is meaningful to establish a clear outlook at an early stage.

Our office provides comprehensive support, from designing acceptance plans based on the situation of each field, to preparing application documents, and responding to cases where the Period of Stay is approaching its expiration.

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This article is written based on publicly available information as of September 2026. Details of the system and its implementation period may change in the future. For actual applications, please refer to the official information from the Immigration Services Agency or contact our office.

Author of this article: Administrative Scrivener Authorized to File Applications, Satoshi Nakayama
Representative, Administrative Scrivener Corporation Miyazaki International Legal Office
Location: Miyazaki City, Miyazaki Prefecture

Sources (Primary Information)

• Immigration Services Agency, “Expected Intake and Number of Residents for Specified Skilled Worker (i) (as of end of June, Reiwa 8 (2026) – Preliminary Figures)” https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/content/001465883.pdf
• Immigration Services Agency, “Specified Skilled Worker System” https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/applications/ssw/index.html
• Immigration Services Agency, “Key Provisions of Sector-Specific Operational Policies” https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/content/001457603.pdf
• Immigration Services Agency, “Basic Policy and Sector-Specific Operational Policies for the Operation of the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) Program” https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/03_00169.html
• Immigration Services Agency, “Regarding the Operation of Acceptance Caps in the Specified Skilled Worker “Food Service Industry” Field” (March 27, Reiwa 8 (2026)) https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/applications/ssw/03_00001.html
• Immigration Services Agency, “Processing Status of Various Status of Residence Applications for Specified Skilled Worker (i) (Food Service Industry Field)” (Posted August 10, 2026) https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/10_00259.html