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On October 19, 2026, the 15th “Expert Meeting on Basic Policy and Sectoral Operational Policy for the Specified Skilled Worker System and Employment for Skill Development Program (ESD)” was held at the Ministry of Justice, where a proposal to review the allocation of the acceptance quota for the nursing care sector was presented. The proposal suggests increasing the number of Specified Skilled Worker (i) by 20,000, from 126,900 to 146,900, and decreasing Employment for Skill Development (ESD) by 20,000, from 33,800 to 13,800, while keeping the overall acceptance quota for the sector (160,700 people) unchanged.
The reason cited in the document is that the number of foreign residents with Specified Skilled Worker (i) Status of Residence in the nursing care sector is increasing at a faster pace than anticipated, and if the current allocation remains, the acceptance quota may be exceeded in the latter half of fiscal year Reiwa 9 (2027). This is still at the “proposal” stage. This article will organize the details of the proposal, the reasons behind it, the process until a decision is made, and the points that nursing care businesses should confirm now, based on the meeting materials.
The allocation proposal in the meeting material “Regarding the Proposed Change in Allocation of Acceptance Quotas for Specified Skilled Worker (i) and Employment for Skill Development in the Nursing Care Sector” (Material 3-2) is as follows:
| Category | Current Allocation | Revised Allocation (Proposal) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specified Skilled Worker (i) | 126,900 people | 146,900 people | +20,000 people |
| Employment for Skill Development | 33,800 people | 13,800 people | −20,000 people |
| Total for Nursing Care Sector | 160,700 people | 160,700 people | ±0 |
The current figures are stipulated in the Sectoral Operational Policy for the nursing care sector, which was approved by the Cabinet on January 23, 2026. The estimated number for Specified Skilled Worker (i) will be operated as an acceptance cap for five years from fiscal year Reiwa 6 to the end of fiscal year Reiwa 10, and the estimated number for Employment for Skill Development will be operated as an acceptance cap for two years from fiscal year Reiwa 9 to the end of fiscal year Reiwa 10. The amendment proposal for the Sectoral Operational Policy (Material 1-2) on the same day also proposes to revise the figures for Specified Skilled Worker (i) in the nursing care sector to 146,900 people and Employment for Skill Development to 13,800 people.
The key point is that this proposal does not increase the total number of foreign nationals entering the nursing care sector. The total remains at 160,700 people, and the proposal is to reallocate the quotas between the two systems.
According to Material 3-2, the number of foreign residents with Specified Skilled Worker (i) Status of Residence in the nursing care sector was 79,884 as of the end of June 2026. Looking at the year-end figures, the increase is as follows:
| Time Point | Number of Foreign Residents with Specified Skilled Worker (i) Status of Residence in the Nursing Care Sector |
|---|---|
| End of December 2023 | 28,400 people |
| End of December 2024 | 44,367 people (1.56 times year-on-year) |
| End of December 2025 | 67,871 people (1.53 times year-on-year) |
| End of June 2026 | 79,884 people |
Because this growth is exceeding expectations, it is stated that if the current limit of 126,900 people remains, it may be exceeded in the latter half of fiscal year Reiwa 9.
The document cites the following points as a result of interviews with accepting companies and related organizations:
Based on this, the document proposes to set the estimated number for Employment for Skill Development for fiscal years Reiwa 9 and 10 at 13,800 people, which is approximately two years’ worth of the acceptance track record for Technical Intern Training “Nursing Care,” and to transfer the difference of 20,000 people to Specified Skilled Worker (i).
Material 3-1 (Basic Approach) states that while changes to the acceptance quota are generally made in cases of significant changes in economic conditions, as an exception, changes in allocation are permitted only when the following two conditions are met:
Document 3-2 cites the significantly higher demand for Specified Skilled Worker (i) than initially anticipated as the reason, and this proposal is likely positioned as an exception to that.
The estimated acceptance cap is not merely a guideline. Article 7-2, Paragraphs 3 and 4 of the Immigration Control Act stipulate that if the minister with jurisdiction over a specific industrial field determines that the necessary human resources have been secured based on the sectoral operational policy, they shall request the Minister of Justice to temporarily suspend the issuance of the Certificate of Eligibility, and the Minister of Justice shall take measures to suspend it. The draft sectoral operational policy for the Nursing Care field also states that if the number of Specified Skilled Worker (i) is expected to exceed the estimated acceptance cap, the Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare shall request the Minister of Justice to suspend the issuance.
In fact, in the Food Service Industry field, the issuance of Certificates of Eligibility for Specified Skilled Worker (i) was suspended from April 13, 2026, because the number of foreign residents was expected to exceed the estimated acceptance cap (50,000 people). In the Food Service Industry field, changes from other Status of Residence are also, in principle, denied, with some exceptions. The circumstances in the Food Service Industry field are covered in “[Latest 2026] Impact and Countermeasures for Suspension of Acceptance of Specified Skilled Worker in “Food Service Industry”.”
If this allocation change is decided for the Nursing Care field, the cap for Specified Skilled Worker (i) will increase by 20,000, and the time it takes to reach the cap is expected to be extended. However, the document does not indicate when the cap is expected to be reached after the allocation change.
Document 1-1 (Draft List of Acceptance Target Fields and Job Categories) from the same day shows the total estimated acceptance cap for all fields as follows:
| Category | Estimated Acceptance Cap (Draft) |
|---|---|
| Specified Skilled Worker (i) (All Fields) | 825,400 people (+19,700 people) |
| Employment for Skill Development (All Fields) | 406,500 people (−19,700 people) |
| Total | 1,231,900 people (±0) |
The increase/decrease is 19,700 people, not 20,000, because the proposal to make the Aviation field a target field for Employment for Skill Development would reduce Specified Skilled Worker (i) in the Aviation field by 300 people and increase Employment for Skill Development by 300 people. The overall total remains unchanged.
The document from the expert meeting on September 9, 2026 (Regarding the start of work for the revision of sectoral operational policies) indicates the schedule for Reiwa 8 (2026) as follows: after an expert meeting in November, the sectoral operational policies are scheduled to be decided in December (Ministerial Meeting and Cabinet Decision).
| Period | Schedule/Event |
|---|---|
| January 23, 2026 | Cabinet decision on the sectoral operational policy for the Nursing Care field (Specified Skilled Worker (i) 126,900 people, Employment for Skill Development 33,800 people) |
| October 19, 2026 | Allocation change proposal presented at the 15th Expert Meeting |
| November 2026 | Expert Meeting (Continued discussion on the draft sectoral operational policy) = Scheduled |
| December 2026 | Decision on sectoral operational policy (Ministerial Meeting and Cabinet Decision) = Scheduled |
| April 1, 2027 | Enforcement of Employment for Skill Development laws and start of Reiwa 9 (2027) fiscal year |
On the other hand, the following points are not indicated in this document:
The proposal may not be decided as is in December. It is safer to confirm the content of the December decision before reflecting it in your recruitment plans, rather than significantly accelerating your plans as if it were already decided.
According to statistics from the Immigration Services Agency (as of the end of June, Reiwa 8 (2026)), there are 3,346 Specified Skilled Worker (i) in Miyazaki Prefecture, of which 747 are in the Nursing Care field. This is the third largest, following the Agriculture field (990 people) and the Food and Beverage Manufacturing Industry field (778 people). By municipality, Miyazaki City has 205 people, Miyakonojo City 112 people, Nichinan City 88 people, and Kobayashi City 84 people.
For nursing care businesses in Miyazaki Prefecture, the following two points will be crucial in practice:
The situation in the nursing care sector in Miyazaki Prefecture is covered in “Specified Skilled Worker in Nursing Care Ranks 3rd in Miyazaki | 635 People & Explanation of Lifting Ban on Home-Visit Services” (figures as of the end of December, Reiwa 7).
The overall picture of the transition to the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) program is also covered in “Proposed Addition of Work Categories to Specified Skilled Worker and Employment for Skill Development | Decision Expected in December.”
Q1. Will the acceptance of Specified Skilled Worker (i) in the nursing care sector be suspended?
It has not been suspended at this time. The document indicates that if the current allocation remains, there is a possibility of exceeding the cap in the latter half of Reiwa 9, and proposes an increase of 20,000 in the cap. If the proposal is decided, the time when the cap is reached is expected to be extended (the document does not indicate an estimated timeframe).
Q2. When will the allocation change be decided?
According to the expert panel document from September 9, 2026, the sectoral operational policy is scheduled to be decided in December (Ministerial Meeting and Cabinet Decision) after an expert panel meeting in November.
Q3. Will the total number of foreign nationals allowed into the nursing care sector increase?
No, it will not increase. The estimated total number of acceptances for the entire nursing care sector remains at 160,700, and the proposal is to reallocate 20,000 between Specified Skilled Worker (i) and Employment for Skill Development (ESD).
Q4. If the quota for nursing care under Employment for Skill Development (ESD) decreases, will it become impossible to accept workers?
The document states that there is ample room in the Employment for Skill Development (ESD) quota, based on the acceptance record of Technical Intern Training “Nursing Care” (the number of certified individuals for (i) was 5,810 in Reiwa 7) and hearings with businesses. The proposed 13,800 is set as approximately two years’ worth of acceptance records.
At the expert panel meeting on October 19, a proposal was presented to revise the allocation of estimated acceptances in the nursing care sector, increasing Specified Skilled Worker (i) by 20,000 to 146,900, and decreasing Employment for Skill Development (ESD) by 20,000 to 13,800. The total for the entire sector remains unchanged at 160,700. The reason is that the number of Specified Skilled Worker (i) residents is increasing at a faster pace than anticipated, and at the current rate, there is a possibility of exceeding the cap in the latter half of Reiwa 9. The decision is scheduled for December. It is important to continue current hiring and renewal management, and to confirm the decision content in December and reflect it in your plans.
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As an Administrative Scrivener Corporation in Miyazaki City, Miyazaki Prefecture, our office assists with organizing the acceptance system for Specified Skilled Worker and Employment for Skill Development, including in the nursing care sector.
For procedures that can be filed online, such as applications for a Certificate of Eligibility, change of status of residence and extension of period of stay, we accept requests from clients nationwide. Meetings are held online (Google Meet, LINE) and documents are exchanged by mail or electronically, so there is no need to visit our office. Applications for Permission for Permanent Residence and for Permission of Naturalization cannot be filed online and must be submitted at the counter, so they are limited to residents of Miyazaki Prefecture. Depending on the procedure and its urgency, you may need to collect your Residence Card at the counter of the immigration office covering the area where you live. Online applications cannot be filed on the last day of your period of stay, so please consult us as early as possible.
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This article is based on publicly available information as of October 2026. Details of the system and implementation dates may change in the future. For actual applications, please confirm with the official information from the Immigration Services Agency or our office.
Author of this article: Administrative Scrivener Authorized to File Applications, Satoshi Nakayama
Representative, Administrative Scrivener Corporation Miyazaki International Legal Office
Location: Miyazaki City, Miyazaki Prefecture
